April 27, 2011
By Tulsathit Taptim
tulsathit@nationgroup.com
The Nation
Okay, it's conspiracy theories time. I'm not here to discount or inflame any of them, and will only share with you information and speculation passing through our newsroom.
You can choose what to believe. All I can guarantee is that while there seem to be hidden agendas everywhere else, here we don't have any ulterior motive. You will be getting our honest assessments of the situations.
The question on everyone's mind is, "Why now?" Why the gunfire, artillery fire and bombs rattling the Thai-Cambodian border again all of a sudden? To that, nobody has the real answer, and even Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa knows this much for certain: Abhisit Vejjajiva and Hun Sen had better hurry. The two leaders must talk now before it's too late.
I'd like to add that if Abhisit and Hun Sen don't want to do so for peace's sake, then it should be for sanity's sake. The latest claims emerging from the Thai yellow shirts' camp - that the border clashes are a conspiracy to draw Thai troops to the border so they will be too pre-occupied to stage a coup - have been bettered by Noppadol Pattama's reaction. As if it was necessary, the close aide to Thaksin Shinawatra has come out to publicly deny that his boss was in Cambodia to command Cambodian troops at the border.
That's how far things have gone. In addition to anxiety caused by the border tension, Thais are being told that everything is not what they think it is. Last week's satellite malfunction that resulted in blank TV screens nationwide was purportedly not a technical error, but a well-executed warning to the Thai military that if they plot a coup, they won't have any channel to broadcast it on. We have been hearing "coup" left, right and centre.
Time magazine has its own inconclusive who-will-benefit theory. Apparently, the Thai Army is not "distracted" by events at the border, but the clashes are something our generals will jump in order to keep themselves important. Time, quoting Thai sources, stopped short of claiming the Thai Army started the war for a dark purpose, pointing out that the border showdown is benefiting Hun Sen politically, too.
Our analysis is that the border clashes involved calculated moves by both sides. But although the territorial tension came hot on the heels of the Thaicom breakdown, both must be unrelated and neither smack of a coup prelude or counter-coup pre-emptive strike.
The leaders of both countries, who have directly or indirectly indicated they are ready to meet, must move fast and rise above politics. Of course, that's easier said than done, as all the signs indicate, including provocative comments from high-ranking officials. But they must try. The situation is simply getting out of hand, and anyone who thinks he's in control as far as the border issue goes is badly mistaken.
Here are key elements to consider as we address the question of why trouble has flared up again. First, new meetings on the Preah Vihear temple are coming up, the first one as early as next month, and as we all know, such forums are often preceded by worrisome incidents, to put it mildly. Secondly, tension had been steadily rising prior to the latest clashes after Thailand all but ruled out the role of neutral "observers" at the disputed areas.
The crux of the matter remains unchanged. Cambodia wants to go international about it, but the Thai government balks at that. Phnom Penh prefers neutral observers but Bangkok says no. Domestic politics is more or less influencing decision-making in both countries. Indonesia, an awkward mediator, is calling for an Abhisit-Hun Sen summit to take place as soon as possible, suggesting that if the situation continues this way, it could get too late very early.
Talk about postponing the Thai election, scheduled for late June or early July, grew louder yesterday. It was not entirely the border skirmishes that prompted the speculation, but the unprecedented taunts hurled from senior Thai Army and government officials against Cambodia. Recently, top Thai officials were mostly diplomatic, but now they have lost their cool. "This won't end easily" seems to be the message to replace the usual "We are trying our best to keep the peace" statements from officials. If you think the Democrats are trying to hold on to power, that's another conspiracy theory there.
But maybe the real reasons are the simplest ones. Both countries are engaging with rifles, rockets and bombs probably because they don't want to lose advantage at future negotiating tables. There must be war before peace can prevail, right? History shows it has always been that way.
